Portugal v Denmark and 2 more Saturday games in numbers

On Saturday Portugal host Denmark in matchweek 5 of the Nations League, and the day has two more games we follow: Norway v Wales in the afternoon and Mirassol v Atlético Mineiro at night. Each national team has played only 4 games in this competition, so our rules use the last 10 competitive games. Of the 3 games, 1 has a clear trend, 1 is a decisive game in the group and 1 has no clear trend.

xG = expected goals: how many goals a team's chances usually produce. CornerPro data to 13/11/2026; tables worked out from the results in our database.

The same day has 6 games in League B of the Nations League, Romania v Poland among them, and the final round of Brazil's Série B. They are not covered here.

NorwayUEFA Nations League17:00Saturday 14 NovemberWales

10 of 10

Norway games with 3+ goals and both teams scoringlast 10 competitive

4 of 10

Wales games with 3+ goalslast 10 competitive

2

Wales goals in this Nations League4 games

Norway v Wales · Nations League, group A4

This is a decisive game: Norway and Wales have 3 points each, behind Portugal and Denmark, and whoever wins moves off the bottom of group A4. Norway's last 10 competitive games all had 3 or more goals and both teams scoring: they scored 19, conceded 19 and never kept a clean sheet. For Wales, only 4 of the last 10 reached 3 goals. In other words, the two sides point in different directions and the game has no clear trend on goals.

Wales have scored 2 goals in 4 games in this competition and none in their 2 away games, creating 0.84 expected goals (xG) per game. In their last 10 competitive games they score 1.70 per game, but 7 of those 17 goals came in the 7-1 against North Macedonia; without that game, they scored 10 in 9 (1.11 per game). Note: small sample.

Norway have lost their last 3 games, all 2-1, and won 5 of their last 10; Wales won 4. By our line there is no favourite. On corners, the two teams' games averaged 9.90 and 9.80 in total, between the two lines. The referee is Ukraine's Oleksiy Derevinskyi, with 3.75 yellow cards per game in 32 games since July 2025, within the normal range.

In the group

Going into the matchweek, Norway and Wales have 3 points each, behind Portugal (12) and Denmark (6). Wales won the first meeting 2-1, on 01/10/2026. Whoever wins on Saturday goes to 6 points and leaves the other bottom, on 3 points with one game left.

See Norway v Wales on the match page.

See the analysis of Norway v Wales →

PortugalUEFA Nations League19:45Saturday 14 NovemberDenmark

4 of 4

Portugal wins in this Nations League12 points

8 of 10

Denmark games with 3+ goalslast 10 competitive

14 of 26

Portugal goals that came in 2 games (9-1 and 5-0)last 10 competitive

Portugal v Denmark · Nations League, group A4

Of Denmark's last 10 competitive games, 8 had 3 or more goals, and the same happened in 6 of Portugal's 10. The first meeting, in Denmark, finished 2-4. In other words, the trend is towards plenty of goals.

Portugal have won all 4 games in this competition, with 9 goals scored and 4 conceded, and create 2.00 expected goals (xG) per game (4 games, small sample). In their last 10 competitive games they scored 26 goals, but 14 came in two games, the 9-1 against Armenia and the 5-0 against Uzbekistan; without them, they scored 12 in 8 games (1.50 per game). Denmark have 2 wins and 2 defeats in the competition, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded.

Portugal won 7 of their last 10 competitive games and lost only to Spain, at the World Cup. Denmark won 5, and our favourite line asks for the opponent to have 3 wins or fewer: Portugal come close but do not count as favourites. On corners, Denmark's games averaged 10.80 in total and Portugal's 9.40; the average of the two, 10.10, is below our 10.5 line. The referee is Slovenia's Rade Obrenović, with 3.48 yellow cards per game in 44 games since July 2025, within the normal range.

In the group

Going into the matchweek, Portugal are top of group A4 with 12 points and Denmark second with 6. A draw is enough for Portugal to secure top spot: they would have 13 points and Denmark could only reach 10. That is context, not a trend.

See Portugal v Denmark on the match page.

See the analysis of Portugal v Denmark →

MirassolBrasileirão Série A21:30Saturday 14 NovemberAtlético Mineiro

10 of 17

Atlético Mineiro away defeatsBrasileirão 2026

12 of 17

Mirassol home games with both teams scoringBrasileirão 2026

4.40

yellow cards per game for referee Sávio Pereira Sampaio45 games since 07/2025

Mirassol v Atlético Mineiro · Brasileirão, round 35

This is the only Brasileirão game on Saturday, brought forward from round 35, at 21:30 UK time. Here we use our club rules: Mirassol's home games and Atlético Mineiro's away games in this league season. Away from home, Atlético Mineiro have lost 10 of 17 games and won 4, scoring 1.00 goal per game. In all competitions they are 6 games without a win, with 5 defeats.

On goals, the two sides do not point the same way. At Mirassol, 12 of the 17 home games had both teams scoring and 9 had 3 or more goals; in Atlético Mineiro's away games, only 6 of 17 had both teams scoring and 7 reached 3 goals. In other words, no clear trend on goals.

On corners, Mirassol win 6.18 per game at home and Atlético Mineiro 4.18 away. Adding both teams together, Mirassol's home games average 10.12 and Atlético Mineiro's away games 10.59: 10.36 between the two, below 10.5. The referee is Sávio Pereira Sampaio, with 4.40 yellow cards per game in 45 games since July 2025, within the normal range for the Brasileirão, where the average is 4.65.

In the table

By our sums, Mirassol are 14th with 40 points, 3 above Corinthians, who are 17th and the first team in the relegation zone. Atlético Mineiro are 7th with 50. Atlético Mineiro won the first meeting 3-1, on 16/05/2026. That is context, not a trend.

See Mirassol v Atlético Mineiro on the match page.

See the analysis of Mirassol v Atlético Mineiro →

How we read these numbers

CornerPro data to 13/11/2026, finished games only. For national teams we use each team's last 10 competitive games, in all competitions and without friendlies, because each team has played only 4 games in this Nations League; when a number comes only from those 4 games, we say so and put the last-10 number alongside. We call plenty of goals when at least 6 of each team's last 10 games had 3 or more; plenty of corners when the average between the two is above 10.5 and 6 of each side's 10 reached 10 (few: 8.5 or below). A clear favourite has 7 or more wins in the last 10 and the opponent 3 or fewer.

For Mirassol v Atlético Mineiro we use one team's home games and the other's away games in the 2026 Brasileirão: plenty of goals asks for 3 or more goals in at least 60% of each side's games. A referee is within the normal range between 3.30 and 4.30 yellow cards per game for national teams and up to 5.00 in the Brasileirão. "No clear trend" means the two sides point in different directions or neither reaches the line. If you use these numbers to bet, decide beforehand how much you can afford to lose and never chase losses. Betting is for over-18s only.