Spain v England and 2 more Sunday games in numbers

Sunday brings matchweek 6, the last one, in groups A1 and A3 of the Nations League, with 4 games at the same time, 19:45 UK time. Each team has played 5 games in this competition, so our rules still use the last 10 competitive games. Three of them are covered here: 2 with a clear trend towards plenty of goals, and Belgium v Italy, where Belgium have to win.

xG = expected goals: how many goals a team's chances usually produce. CornerPro data to 13/11/2026; tables worked out from the results in our database.

Wales host Portugal on Tuesday.

SpainUEFA Nations League19:45Sunday 15 NovemberEngland

10 of 10

Spain winslast 10 competitive

9 of 10

England games with 3+ goalslast 10 competitive

13 of 30

England goals that came in 2 games (0-7 and 4-6)last 10 competitive

Spain v England · Nations League, group A3

Of England's last 10 competitive games, 9 had 3 or more goals, and the same happened in 6 of Spain's 10. Spain won the first meeting 3-2, in England. In other words, the trend is towards plenty of goals.

Spain have won their last 10 competitive games, with 23 goals scored and 6 conceded, and England have won 8 of their last 10. Our favourite line asks for the opponent to have 3 wins or fewer, so there is no favourite here. England scored 30 goals in those 10 games, but 13 came in two of them, the 0-7 in Croatia and the 4-6 against France; without them, they scored 17 in 8 games (2.13 per game).

In this competition, Spain create 2.34 expected goals (xG) per game and England 2.75 (5 games each, small sample). On corners there is no trend: both teams' games in the last 10 averaged 9.10 in total, between our two lines. The referee is France's Clément Turpin, with 3.38 yellow cards per game in 45 games since July 2025, within the normal range.

In the group

Going into the final matchweek, Spain are top of group A3 with 15 points and England second with 12. A draw is enough for Spain; if England win, both finish on 15 points and the head-to-head decides. That is context, not a trend.

See Spain v England on the match page.

See the analysis of Spain v England →

CroatiaUEFA Nations League19:45Sunday 15 NovemberCzech Republic

9 of 10

Croatia games with 3+ goalslast 10 competitive

0

Czechia winslast 10 competitive

4.55

yellow cards per game for referee Luís Godinho55 games since 07/2025

Croatia v Czechia · Nations League, group A3

Of Croatia's last 10 competitive games, 9 had 3 or more goals, as did 7 of Czechia's 10. Croatia conceded 25 goals in those 10 games, but 7 came in the 0-7 against England; without that game, they conceded 18 in 9 (2.00 per game). In other words, the trend is towards plenty of goals.

Czechia have not won any of their last 10 competitive games (3 draws and 7 defeats) and have lost all 5 in this competition, with 2 goals scored and 12 conceded. They create 0.63 expected goals (xG) per game in this competition (5 games, small sample); in their last 10 competitive games they score 0.80 per game. Croatia have lost their last 4 games and won 4 of their last 10, well short of the 7 wins our favourite line asks for.

The referee is Portugal's Luís Godinho, with 4.55 yellow cards per game in 55 games since July 2025; he reached 5 or more yellows in 26 of those 55 games. In other words, the trend is towards cards above normal. On corners, the two teams' games averaged 9.00 and 9.20 in total, between the two lines.

In the group

Going into the final matchweek, Croatia are third in group A3 with 3 points and Czechia fourth with 0. Croatia's 3 points come from the first meeting, which they won 2-1 in Czechia on 26/09/2026; a draw is enough for them to avoid finishing bottom. That is context, not a trend.

See Croatia v Czechia on the match page.

See the analysis of Croatia v Czech Republic →

BelgiumUEFA Nations League19:45Sunday 15 NovemberItaly

1

point between Italy (10) and Belgium (9)group A1, 5 games

7 of 10

Belgium games with 3+ goalslast 10 competitive

5 of 10

Italy games with 3+ goalslast 10 competitive

Belgium v Italy · Nations League, group A1

Belgium have to win: they have 9 points, Italy have 10, and a draw or a defeat leaves Belgium third in the group. On goals, 7 of Belgium's last 10 competitive games had 3 or more, but only 5 of Italy's 10, and our line asks for 6 on each side. In other words, no clear trend on goals, narrowly.

Both have won 6 of their last 10 competitive games, so there is no favourite either. In this competition, Italy create 1.97 expected goals (xG) per game and concede 1.74, and have conceded in all 5 games; Belgium create 1.45 and concede 1.34 (5 games each, small sample). In their last 10 competitive games, Italy score 2.00 goals per game and Belgium 2.10.

On corners, the two sides point in different directions. Italy's games in the last 10 averaged 10.70 corners in total and 6 reached 10; Belgium's averaged 8.20 and only 3 reached 10. The referee is Norway's Espen Eskås, with 3.73 yellow cards per game in 45 games since July 2025, within the normal range.

In the group

Going into the final matchweek, three teams are separated by 1 point: France and Italy on 10 and Belgium on 9. Belgium won the first meeting 2-0 in Italy, on 25/09/2026. If Belgium win, they go above Italy and finish at least second. If they draw, Italy stay ahead and, if Belgium end level with France, the head-to-head counts, and France won both games (0-1 and 4-1).

See Belgium v Italy on the match page.

See the analysis of Belgium v Italy →

How Thursday's readings went

• In Thursday's 4 games (12/11) we gave 4 expectations with a direction: 2 came in and 2 missed.
• The favourite came in for Czechia v Spain (0-2), and so did plenty of goals for England v Croatia (2-1).
• Plenty of goals missed for Czechia v Spain, which had 2, and cards above normal missed for Italy v France, which had 4 yellows.

We count it as right when: the favourite wins; there are 3 or more goals; there are 5 or more yellows for "above normal". Friday's and Saturday's games go into the next count.

How we read these numbers

CornerPro data to 13/11/2026, finished competitive games only, no friendlies; none of these 6 teams play before Sunday. Each team has played only 5 games in this Nations League, too few to give a trend, so our rules use each team's last 10 competitive games, in all competitions (the 2026 World Cup and qualifying included). When a number comes only from those 5 games, we say so and, almost always, put the last-10 number alongside. We call plenty of goals when at least 6 of each team's last 10 games had 3 or more; plenty of corners when the average between the two is above 10.5 and 6 of each side's 10 reached 10 (few: 8.5 or below).

A clear favourite has 7 or more wins in the last 10 and the opponent 3 or fewer. A referee is within the normal range between 3.30 and 4.30 yellow cards per game (since July 2025). "No clear trend" means the two sides point in different directions or neither reaches the line. If you use these numbers to bet, decide beforehand how much you can afford to lose and never chase losses. Betting is for over-18s only.